The forecast estimates the delivery capacity (i.e. the number of issues) for a given period.
This forecast is based on a Monte Carlo simulation. The historical throughput of the last three months is used to forecast; therefore, a more stable throughput can increase predictability and lead to more accurate results. Note that issue size does not impact the results.
Want to learn more about our projection logic? Check out this help article!
To estimate the number of items deemed deliverable
- From the interface of your project, access the projection module.
- This projection is located at the bottom of the page.
- In the Start Date field, enter the date you want the work to start. You can enter the date in MM/DD/YYYY format or select the date from the calendar after clicking the field.
- Similarly, enter the job's end date in the End Date field. Again, you can enter the date in MM/DD/YYYY format or select the date from the calendar after clicking on the field.
- Once you have entered the data, click on Start Forecast. The simulation will run 10,000 iterations, which may take a few seconds.
- To the left of the chart are three measures for potential delivery volume.
- 85% confidence and the number will be displayed in green
70% confidence and the number will be displayed in yellow
50% confidence and the number will be displayed in red
As for the graph, it shows a progressive decrease in probability over time (blue line) as well as the percentiles corresponding to the dates seen on the left (vertical dotted line). Since it is interactive, you can hover over the graph with your mouse to get more information for a potential end date.For example, suppose we have entered January 22, 2022, as the end date, and we are looking for the number of items delivered at 95% confidence. In that case, we can hover over the blue area and discover that the forecast estimates delivery of 19 issues rather than 23.